Franklin, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

762
FXUS64 KOHX 271716
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1216 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of Middle Tennessee west
  of the Cumberland Plateau today through Wednesday. Widespread
  heat index values of 105F to 110F are expected, especially from
  Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will start to back off
  starting on Thursday.

- There are low to medium chances for afternoon/early evening
  storms today through Tuesday, with rain/storm chances increasing
  mid to late week.

- While the risk of severe storms is very low, any storms that
  develop may produce very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning,
  along with the potential for gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Today is the first of 4 days under a heat advisory affecting most
of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau. Tomorrow
through Wednesday looks to be the hottest, with widespread heat
index values of 105F+, including some spots that look to reach
110F, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. It is unclear at this
time if an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning will be needed at
some point, but it is definitely possible. Today will mark the
26th consecutive 90-degree day at Nashville, which ties us for
the 7th-longest such streak in Nashville`s history. The record is
34, set during that awful summer of 2007. It appears unlikely
that we will break that record this time (not that we want to).
Meanwhile, the environment across Middle Tennessee this afternoon
remains humid and unstable, although not quite as unstable as
yesterday. The 12Z sounding from OHX shows a Precipitable Water
value of 2.03", which is up slightly from 24 hrs. ago. Modifying
the sounding for the forecast max temp gives us a CAPE value of
1,670 J/kg and a Lifted Index of -5. The 700-500 lapse rate has
steepened somewhat to 6.1 C/km. But the winds aloft remain quite
weak; in fact, winds from 850 mb up to the tropopause are entirely
within the 5-15 kt range, so storm movement is going to be very
slow. Despite the decrease in instability parameters, there
remains a low to medium chance of convective development today
through Tuesday. Looking at the bigger picture, a surface high is
centered due south of Middle Tennessee, with relatively deep
moisture rotating around the periphery. The high center continues
to retrograde slowly westward, and this will have a big impact on
our weather pattern later in the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

While Middle Tennessee continues to bake early next week, the
aforementioned surface high will transition to the southern plains
by Thursday. This will cut off our southerly flow and also help
push an east-west oriented surface boundary southward through
Middle Tennessee later in the week. This will give us a much-
needed reprieve from the excessive heat and will also bring
increased rain/storm chances from Wednesday through the weekend.
At this time, we are not outlooked for any severe storms from the
SPC. Our primary concern is widespread excessive heat from today
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Any MVFR cigs this morning will rise to VFR by 18z and we will see
VFR conditions through the TAF period. A few scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible between 18 and 03z but the chances
of them hitting the terminals are less than 20%. There is a low
chance (<20%) of seeing patchy fog overnight mainly over the
Plateau. Southwesterly winds up to 7 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      78  96  78  97 /  10  40  10  30
Clarksville    76  95  77  96 /  10  30  10  20
Crossville     70  88  70  90 /  10  50  10  40
Columbia       75  95  76  96 /  10  40  10  30
Cookeville     72  90  73  92 /  10  40  10  30
Jamestown      71  88  71  91 /  20  50  10  40
Lawrenceburg   74  93  74  95 /  10  40  10  40
Murfreesboro   75  95  76  97 /  10  40  10  30
Waverly        74  94  76  96 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ005>010-023>031-
056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Mueller